EAST COAST GAS MARKET UPDATE

30 September 2026

Weekly Spot Price Movement

Prices for the Remainder of the Week

Prices for the remainder of the week are expected to strengthen modestly across the three STTM hubs, with Sydney forecast between $10.60–$10.93/GJ, Adelaide between $10.85–$11.00/GJ and Brisbane between $10.75–$11.05/GJ. Sydney is expected to rise steadily through Friday, while Adelaide is forecast to strengthen to $11.00/GJ on Thursday and then hold flat. Brisbane is expected to increase to $11.05/GJ on Thursday before easing slightly to $11.02/GJ on Friday. 

East Coast Supply and Demand

East Coast supply and demand remain relatively balanced, with supply currently exceeding demand by 51 TJ. This compares with a 108 TJ shortfall last week, representing a 159 TJ week-on-week improvement in the net position and a shift from deficit to surplus.

Iona Gas Storage

Iona storage has remained broadly stable compared with the previous update, increasing slightly from 13,261 TJ (54%) to 13,266 TJ (54%), a rise of 5 TJ, with capacity utilisation unchanged at 54%. 

The facility has shifted from withdrawal to injection, with 66 TJ flowing into storage, compared with a 43 TJ withdrawal previously. This represents a 109 TJ/day swing in storage flows, indicating a clear shift from drawing down inventories to rebuilding storage levels. 

Outlook

East Coast gas market conditions remain relatively stable, although STTM prices have strengthened over the week, with Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide all moving higher and trading around the $10–$11/GJ range. The supply-demand balance has also improved materially, with supply exceeding demand by 51 TJ, compared with a 108 TJ shortfall in the previous update, representing a 159 TJ improvement in the net position and a return to surplus. 

Iona storage remains broadly stable at 13,266 TJ (54%), compared with 13,261 TJ (54%) in the previous update. More notably, storage activity has shifted from a 43 TJ withdrawal to a 66 TJ injection, indicating that inventories are now being rebuilt rather than drawn down. With spring underway, attention will remain on whether this rebuilding trend continues and whether the improved supply-demand balance helps moderate further upward pressure on spot prices. 

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Market News – Last 7 Days

Shell-led LNG Canada approves major expansion, adding future global LNG supply – 29 September 2026 

Shell and its partners have approved the second phase of the LNG Canada project in British Columbia, with the expansion expected to double production capacity to around 28 million tonnes per annum. While the additional supply is a longer-term development, increased North American LNG availability into Asian markets could eventually increase competition for Australian LNG and place downward pressure on regional LNG pricing and export-parity values.  

Reuters 

Qatar extends LNG force majeure as Strait of Hormuz disruption continues – 28 September 2026 

QatarEnergy has extended force majeure notices affecting LNG deliveries to some European and Asian customers as disruption through the Strait of Hormuz continues. Qatar is one of the world’s largest LNG suppliers, meaning prolonged interruptions could keep global LNG availability constrained and support elevated Asian LNG prices. This remains relevant to the East Coast market through the influence of international LNG prices on Australian LNG netback and export-parity pricing.

Reuters 

Kogas raises concerns over proposed Australian gas reservation scheme – 25 September 2026 

Kogas Australia, which holds a 15% interest in the Santos-led GLNG project, has raised concerns about the Federal Government’s proposed domestic gas reservation framework. Kogas argues that applying new reservation requirements could affect existing investment arrangements and future confidence in Australian LNG projects. Other producers have similarly called for greater certainty around how the proposed obligation of up to 20% of LNG exports would be calculated and applied. These are industry concerns rather than established outcomes of the policy.  

The Australian

Santos warns gas reservation settings could affect Narrabri investment – 24 September 2026 

Santos has warned that the proposed domestic gas reservation framework could affect the commercial viability of its planned Narrabri gas project in NSW if domestic prices were pushed below levels required to support new investment. Santos says Narrabri could supply up to 90 TJ of gas per day to the domestic market. The warning highlights the ongoing debate over how the reservation scheme should balance near-term affordability and supply with incentives for investment in new East Coast gas production.  

The Australian