Points for Consideration Regarding Energy Prices

 

  • While there is an unstoppable force of clean energy transition not controlled by government policy, spot price outcomes over February will still be driven by temperature outcomes and the availability of thermal generating capacity.
  • Over at least the short-term underlying prices are expected to remain strong due to the continuation of higher priced gas, hydro, and black-coal generation in setting the marginal spot price.
  • Thermal coal prices are predicted drop in 2019, although it remains to be seen whether this will change the aggressive bidding practices of some of the big coal-fired generators.
  • The drop in LNG price is yet to be reflected in the domestic gas market.
  • As the flow from the NGP increases we could see a drop in east coast gas prices, which if it eventuates, may see a drop in electricity spot prices.
  • Worsening drought may drive up wholesale power prices. The New South Wales drought now affects the entire state.